Analysis of the adaptive and geographical distribution of Yulania liliiflora based on DIVA-GIS

Based on 39 geographical distributions and 19 bio-climatic factors, the potential distribution regions of Yulania liliiflora (Desr.) D. L. Fu were predicted using the BIOCLIM model. Results showed that natural populations were distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Hubei, Gansu, Chongqing, and Fujian provinces, mainly within elevations ranging from 300 m to 1600 m. Under the present climatic conditions, the most suitable region was the Miaoling Mountains in Guizhou Province. Based on future global warming (with double CO₂ concentrations), the potential distribution regions of Y. liliiflora should contract to higher altitudes but spread to central Hunan and eastern Zhejiang along the northeast boundary. Hydrothermal conditions (e.g., heat and moisture) significantly affected the geographical distribution pattern of Y. liliiflora. Results forecasted through the BIOCLIM model demonstrated high accuracy according to ROC curve analysis, which showed a high AUC value (0.998). In the context of global warming, our analysis on the adaptability of Y. liliiflora should provide a good basis for the protection and utilization of germplasm resources.