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Li Dan-Qi, Hu Wan, Han Cai-Xia, Chen Lu-Dan, Zhang Zhi-Yong, Zhong Ai-Wen, Wei Zong-Xian, Peng Yan-Song. Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas based on MaxEnt model[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2020, 38(6): 743-750. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2020.60743
Citation: Li Dan-Qi, Hu Wan, Han Cai-Xia, Chen Lu-Dan, Zhang Zhi-Yong, Zhong Ai-Wen, Wei Zong-Xian, Peng Yan-Song. Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas based on MaxEnt model[J]. Plant Science Journal, 2020, 38(6): 743-750. DOI: 10.11913/PSJ.2095-0837.2020.60743

Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas based on MaxEnt model

  • Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas is a rare and endangered species in China with important economic and ornamental value. Prediction of suitable habitats of F. hodginsii will help to facilitate practical and scientifically based protection measures for this species. Based on distribution data of 84 sites and 11 environmental factors in China, the MaxEnt model and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict potentially suitable habitats of F. hodginsii. Results showed that the mean value of the area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 and the accuracy of the model was high, and thus suitable for predicting potential habitats of F. hodginsii. The suitable habitats were mainly located in the Wuyi, Luoxiao, and Nanling mountains, including hilly areas south of the Yangtze River, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, and the Sichuan basin. Jackknife results showed that the major factors determining the potential suitable distribution were minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month. We deduced that summer and autumn precipitation resulting in pollination failure may be a key factor limiting the natural renewal and distribution of F. hodginsii.
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